The Percentage (John Edwards) Argument
Quite recently on one of my used to be favorite shows, Ghost Whisperer, I saw an old argument come up on psychics and whoops, within 24 hours it popped up on several Yahoo groups as the AKA John Edwards approach.
It goes like this: the medium asks if anyone in the audience has a departed family member with a name starting with a letter and moves on to a name. The skeptic then points out that 70% plus people of that age group were named whatever the name is and thus the medium is a fake. All may bow and clap who never took a course in logic, i.e. the skeptics.
Let’s turn the whole thing around. 70% + people in the audience of a certain age will have a relative named “X” as it was the most popular name at that time. Therefore the odds are someone named “X” will be attempting to communicate because who else would be communicating with them? Their name is “X”. Heck, my father’s name was James and he is dead. How many of you have a relative named James? Is he supposed to change his name to communicate with me and then would I know who it was? Probably not, unless we had a code before he died. The proof is in the details which verify who is communicating. So don’t fall for the percentage argument. It has more holes than Swiss cheese. Guess I'll watch Men in Trees instead.